As we move into the latter half of the College Football Bowl schedule, more high-profile teams are beginning to enter the field. This week, Wednesday’s Holiday Bowl includes North Carolina and Oregon.
The game features two of the country’s more exciting quarterbacks on the same field. In North Carolina, Drake May is the sport’s fourth most productive passer.
Go Bowling: 2022 college football bowl game schedule.
The Knicks could have entered the 2023 NFL Draft, but instead chose to return to Oregon the following season. May is not yet qualified to be a professional. He could have gone into a transfer portal instead.
Both appear at the Holiday Bowl, giving us a preview of the two potential Heisman Trophy finalists next season and a glimpse of what the sport will look like when it begins next fall.
Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. North Carolina Prediction, Pick Against Spread
How to watch, streaming
When: Wednesday, December 28th
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Television: Fox Network
Stream: fuboTV (try it free)
Odds, point spreads and betting lines
Game lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook and subject to change after publication
Point Spread: Oregon -13 (-110) | North Carolina +13 (-118)
total: 76 points | -110 or higher | -118 or lower
Moneyline: Oregon -568 | North Carolina +370
FPI Forecast: According to a computer prediction model that simulates a team’s season 20,000 times to pick a winner, Oregon has a 69.5% chance of winning the game outright, compared to North Carolina’s 30.5% chance.
Diffusion of consensus picks: Oregon -13
more: North Carolina vs Oregon Holiday Bowl Picks, Predictions
North Carolina Betting Trends
+ Carolina is 5-7-1 to the overall spread this season
+ Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four matches on natural grass
+ Under 5-1 in the last 6 for UNC after allowing over 280 yards last time.
+ Carolina are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games on grass
Betting trends in Oregon
+ Duck is 8-4 to the spread for the whole year
+ Oregon is 6-1 against the spread in its last 7 games after the ATS loss.
+ Duck is 4-0 ATS if always supported by 14 or more points
+ 7-5 overs in Oregon games, but only hit one over in the last four games
Oregon vs. North Carolina: Keys to Victory
Oregon wins if: I have the ball last. Neither of these defenses are great, but Carolina’s units are particularly bad in most phases. It didn’t create much pressure in the pocket, wasn’t great at making takeaways, and was the ACC’s worst in both points scored and yards allowed. Must have time to take his pick at medium range against a secondary that lacks or has many running lanes against the front seven.
North Carolina wins if: Win the third down battle and balance. Oregon mirrors the Tar Heels in terms of subpar defense in most respects, but their biggest weakness is their third down defense, which ranks them 118th by allowing 6.5 conversions per game. , allowing opponents to move the chain 48.97% of the time, placing 127th in the nation.
Oregon is 118th overall for passes, and even without receiver Josh Downs, it should be a productive day for Drake May, especially UNC, who are 8-1 over 120 yards. A moderate amount of effort to move the ball on the ground helps a lot.
Holiday Bowl Predictions
Those are two defenses that didn’t do much during the regular season, in the present, when they struggled with transfers and opted out of the NFL Draft with no improvement.
And they’re up against two quarterbacks with the skill sets to establish the pace early on and impress next season. All of this should make for a fun shootout to help end the year.
If one of your offenses can’t keep up with the other, the game can tilt heavily in some ways. In those situations, the Ducks are better equipped to handle given UNC’s lack of Josh Downs and Oregon’s slight advantage on the defensive side of the ball.
College Football HQ Holiday Bowl Predictions: Oregon 40, North Carolina 30 (North Carolina +13, Under 76)
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